Sir Martin Sorrell has decided there will be an L-shaped recovery in Europe – slow and drawn out, while the British Chambers of Commerce announced back in July 2009 that the worst of the recession is behind us. 

These divergent views present a problem for marketers. As the economists and business leaders debate whether 2010 will bring recovery or a “double dip” recession, marketing teams have to work out whether to face the next 12 months with a sense of optimism or despair.

Coca-Cola GB marketing director Cathryn Sleight predicts this year “is going to remain a tough, uncertain time and market”. She believes a return to a buoyant economy is going to be slow, with full consumer confidence taking a long while to return.

Others have mixed feelings about the recovery. UKTV director of marketing and communications Tom Lucas believes “the UK should continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best”.

While Lucas might be cautiously optimistic, others are decidedly gloomy. Jamie Murray Wells, founder and executive chairman of entrepreneurial business Glasses Direct, believes 2010 “will be the most difficult year of the recession”.

With marketers unable to predict just how the economic climate will pan out this year, many are concerned about the effect this uncertainty will have on consumer behaviour. For most of 2009, consumers responded to the recession by buying more supermarket-own value ranges and buying less of the luxury ranges, as indicated in research from agency Leapfrog.

The latest Crunchonomics report released by media agency Arena BLM, also indicates that while consumer confidence is starting to return, many shoppers are still choosing to save money by only buying what they need.

Simon Carter, marketing director for Fujitsu’s UK government division, says the slow recovery will lead to a shift in shopping behaviour in 2010. “I believe that customers will flock back to big brands – brands provide a level of trust and certainty. So long as brands don’t ignore the “value” box, customers will not take the chance on an unknown supplier with what little cash they have to spare.”

Search engine and advertising platform Google has already noted more positive actions among its users. Dan Cobley, marketing director for Google in north and central Europe, says search behaviour is showing a positive consumer outlook.

“The Google Barometer, a tool that uses search data to show how consumer confidence is faring in our ever-changing economic climate, is showing interest in more positive things, suggesting that consumer confidence is returning,” says Cobley. “Searches on luxury items such as ‘diamond rings’ and ‘sports coupés’ have risen sharply in recent months, while terms such as ‘safe savings’ and ‘bankruptcy’ have fallen away.”

Despite these positive indications, Betfair global brand and marketing director Oscar Nieboer says marketers will be heavily scrutinised throughout this year. He warns: “There will be an increased pressure on marketing teams to develop innovative and exciting concepts that will cut through and deliver great results despite the uncertain economic circumstances.”

This need not be a negative thing, however. Nieboer says that this will lead to a culture of creativity throughout the industry. With less money to go around than a few years ago, people will have to come up with new ways to grab attention.

He also suggests there is likely to be more mergers and acquisitions activity in 2010 across many sectors as businesses look to consolidate. While this will no doubt be worrying for many marketers, it also promises exciting times ahead.

But there’s one event that is set to unite the country and indeed the globe. Nieboer explains: “One bright light for the coming months is the FIFA World Cup. There will be a huge uplift of activity around the event, with marketers competing to piggy-back on the South Africa effect – it could just prove to be the shot in the arm the media industry and economy is crying out for.”

UKTV’s Lucas agrees the World Cup will buoy the nation. He also believes the general election will put an “end to the uncertainty about Britain’s political future”, which could encourage more commercial activity in the second half of this year.

It appears that while marketers such as Lucas and Nieboer can identify the potential bright spots in 2010, the UK is not economically out of the dark yet. Cost concerns still loom large for many marketers.

Value message

With this in mind, “value” will be a key concept considered by the marketing community this year. Whether it’s marketers emphasising that their products are affordable for all or that consumers can get more from their brand than their rivals, brands are looking to get the value message across loud and clear this year.

UKTV’s Lucas says he will be looking at value-for-money ways to communicate, which may mean putting a greater emphasis on “the cost-effective areas of strategic partnerships, content syndication, seeding and PR”.

This value message will also be imperative for TUI travel group, says its customer director Tim Williamson. “We need to continue to communicate, demonstrate and deliver great value and excellent levels of service and product to our customers,” he says.

“This year – more than ever – our customers will be looking for security and value from their precious holiday purchases, so we need to ensure we flex our product mix and communications to meet this demand.”

The value message will be used in a slightly different way by insurance brand More Than. Its marketing director Pete Markey is keen to use value not merely as a measure of cost, but also service. He claims his brand will be seeking to push its brand promise about doing “more than” competitors with “innovative new customer-led propositions”.

Meanwhile, Burger King UK and Ireland marketing director Sarah Power says this year her brand not only aims to use marketing to draw attention to the cheaper options on offer but also bring “equal attention to value and premium ranges to attract all sections of society”.

Emerging technologies

Other brands think the path to finding good value in 2010 will be to look at using emerging technologies and social media. Toshiba UK marketing director Matt McDowell says he will probably focus on digital marketing. Since so many consumers already research their electronics purchases online, it makes sense for his brand to move its communications to the medium where potential customers are already active.

McDowell is keen, like many other marketers at technology brands, to communicate innovation more in 2010. As the market improves, there is more scope for brands to move away from talking about price and instead explain their points of difference to consumers.

McDowell says this year he will be using his brand’s tagline “leading innovation” to try to push the message out to shoppers that his is “an electronics company that offers something fresh to the crowded market”.

While Toshiba is pushing forward with marketing itself on the platform of innovation, Yahoo! Europe head of marketing James Tipple says he will be looking to use existing technology in new and innovative ways.

Mobile will be a focus area this year for the brand, predicts Tipple, who sees this area as under-used by marketers. “There are still opportunities to be unearthed as there are 4.5 times more mobile users than PC users globally,” he says.

Zurich insurance chief marketing officer Arun Sinha says it will be mainly business as usual this year, with just a bit of “minor tweaking”. He predicts that Zurich will invest more in online activities that “will let us target customers better and make our messages more relevant”. Sinha says the brand will be using new ways to get their messages across – by creating a mobile application, for example.

Facebook’s UK commercial director, Stephen Haines, says it’s not just about the technology that marketers use, but the way it is used. He argues that 2010 will cement digital as a medium that is “truly a two-way interactive marketing message. 2010 will be about brands using advertising to help them talk with their customers rather than delivering a one-dimensional message at their customers”.

Coke’s Sleight says she recognises the need for continuous conversation with customers, and “will continue to respond to new opportunities and increasing consumer demand for dialogue”. She remains tight-lipped about the exact nature of Coke’s campaigns running this year, but the World Cup and the build-up to the 2012 Olympics in London will be events where the company will look to gain advantage.

While not every brand can leverage the power of large sporting events such as the Olympics or World Cup, other companies have their own ambitious plans that hope to defy any continuing recession.

Changing business plans

Bulldog marketing director Ben Grace says the male grooming brand is widening its horizons from the UK only to the export market. He says: “We’re confident that a cool British brand will do well in style-conscious, design led markets.”

He also hints that there will be some new products launched early this year that “will be the first of their kind”, although he is unwilling to give away the details.

Following the fallout of the banking industry, experience brand Vinopolis, which organises a lot of corporate events, has had to diversify by offering a wider price range of activities, such as comedy nights. Its traditional audience – the finance industry – was badly hit by the recession in 2009. But this year it is looking to lure the banking sector back “as City firms become increasingly comfortable with hosting events”, says managing director Rupert Ellwood. He argues that research suggests this sector will be the strongest to target in 2010.

Telecoms brand O2 perhaps has the greatest ambition of all. Sally Cowdry, its UK marketing director, says following the diversification of the business last year with the launch of O2 Money, the brand now hopes to take this further and “turn customers into fans”.

This bold ambition will require Cowdry and her fellow marketers to ensure that 2010 is seen as a year of opportunities rather than retrenchment. But with so many conflicting opinions on what the next 12 months will offer, it seems “uncertainty” looks set to be the watchword for the year ahead.

 

2009 Review

Marketers describe their successes of last year and what they can improve for 2010

Last year was not a bumper 12 months for most companies. But some businesses claim that their actions in 2009 have set them up for a positive year ahead. Whether a successful marketing campaign or elevating the role of the marketing team within their organisation, some brands think the last year was a tough but necessary learning process.

Karl Gregory, acting country manager and marketing director for online dating sites Match.com and Dating Direct, says: “Something I am most proud of is the way that the team has dealt with what has been a particularly challenging year. We’ve tackled a number of major changes, not least moving the Match.com brand into the same stable as Dating Direct, growing the brand substantially. It has gone very smoothly and has been a great opportunity to share best practice and learn from each other’s expertise.”

After years of struggling to position Stella Artois as a sophisticated beer, Andreas Hilger, marketing director of InBev UK, believes 2009 is the year the marketing team finally cracked the conundrum. “We’re particularly proud of the marketing work – and performance – of Stella Artois. The marketing mix was right. In particular, the digital work around Stella Artois (Smooth Originals and the most recent release, Le Recyclage de Luxe on YouTube).”

For some marketers, pride comes less from the marketing itself and more about the role of marketing. Last year Crown Paints promoted Liz Hickson to its board, changing her role from UK marketing controller to marketing director, indicating the business recognises the importance of marketing to the overall business. Rows of paints in a DIY store find it difficult to make any one brand stand out beyond the colours, but Hickson says that apart from her promotion, she is particularly proud of the current Just Imagine campaign. The brand also spent last year investing in social media, with how-to video tips online.

Mark Thomson, media director of Royal Mail, says he will remember 2009 as the year when research began to show that direct mail was of great use as part of an integrated campaign. While Royal Mail has suffered from postal strikes this year, Thomson says: “Overall, I am hearing people starting to talk up DM, rather than talk it down, and revisiting the creative sensory appeal possible through the letterbox.” He claims: “Our Brand Science research, which brought together global research showcasing the positive impact of using mail alongside other channels, was a great success. For example, it showed digital campaigns are 62% more effective when combined with direct mail.”

Cathryn Sleight, marketing director for Coca-Cola GB, says the biggest success of 2009 for her brand involved realising the potential of new media. She recalls: “I am pleased to see that our marketing has continued to evolve from a past concentration – even obsession – with TV commercials to embrace digital and social networking.”

At Yahoo!, which has long been using online marketing, it was the rollout of the brand’s biggest ad campaign in 2009 that sticks in the mind of James Tipple, head of marketing at Yahoo! Europe. The Y!ou campaign cost more than $100m, which was rolled out globally. Tipple says: “Yahoo!’s vision is to be at the centre of people’s online lives, and this marketing campaign has been particularly effective in reflecting that openness and accessibility for our users.”

For O2, it is the company’s move into new business sectors that has really stuck with the marketers at the firm. Sally Cowdry, UK marketing director at O2, believes 2009 was the year that cemented the company as more than mobile. She recalls: “The launch of O2 Money… successfully took us into a completely new sector.” She claims the launch of pre-pay cards was a success story with 100,000 card applications in the first seven weeks.

Arun Sinha, CMO at Zurich insurance, is particularly proud that his company didn’t shy away from implementing a major marketing campaign called HelpPoint in the face of the recession. “While the world was reeling from the financial crisis, we were busy transforming ourselves to become totally customer-centric. We took 60,000 employees through a process that helped them change and become customer-centric. That was all internal, but externally, it led to marketing success.”

Others are simply happy that they didn’t haemorrhage as much money as was feared last January. Rupert Ellwood, managing director at Vinopolis, says the business was only down 6% compared with the previous year’s net profit – something that was seen as a success story for the business. Expansion also continued despite the dire economic backdrop. Ellwood says he is proud of the fact that the firm has innovated despite the temptation to cut back. “We have extended our brand to non-wine related consumer events, such as the popular comedy nights and the ceilidh,” he explains.

Jamie Murray Wells, founder of online optician Glasses Direct, reflects on 2009 as the year that his firm launched technology that changed the way he could do business. Technology now exists on the website that allows people to upload a photo of themselves and “try on” different pairs of glasses available to buy on the website. “We explored what the future holds in terms of applied augmented reality in a commercial context,” he says. 

Spencer McHugh, brand director at Orange, believes the big success story at the mobile company for 2009 was the long-running free cinema ticket promotion, Orange Wednesday, which celebrated its fifth year. He adds: “We’ve been involved in cinema and film for a long time now and it’s one of our key pillars of our marketing programme.” 

Expedia’s Alex Gisbert, director of online partner marketing for Europe, believes that the travel site has used 2009 to become a lean, mean machine to face whatever happens in 2010. Gisbert says: “Nimbleness is a quality you have to have for success, and we’ve set ourselves up in a way to be really, really nimble.”

But Simon Carter, marketing director for Fujitsu’s UK government division, isn’t sure that 2009 was a vintage year for marketers. He believes marketers will have to do a better job in 2010 in order to have a greater impact on business. He warns: “Many established brands struggled with how they made themselves relevant; new brands failed to have the backing to break through; customers became ever more cynical in the light of MPs’ expenses. “But it is with the growth of social media that I believe 2009 was epoch-making – the customer is now truly king, and marketers have to acknowledge that, or face the consequences.”

What could we have done better in 2009?

We all have things we could have done better but what do marketers wish they had achieved in the past 12 months? Many regret not taking more advantage of cut-price rates for products and services during the tough times.

Sarah Power, marketing director of Burger King in the UK and Ireland, says she wishes she had “acted on the economic pressures that cropped up a lot faster, but I think our You’ll Think You Robbed Us campaign did this justice in the end”.

TUI customer director Tim Williamson also regrets not having taken every opportunity to take out positive gains from the recession. “With many media channels at such low prices, we could have taken better advantage of the low pricing and invested more heavily to achieve greater gains on our competitors,” he admits.

Google’s marketing director in north and central Europe, Dan Cobley, says he too wishes that he’d been quicker to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the economic slump: “I wish I’d bought some shares in tech and online companies before the rally.”

Over at UKTV, Tom Lucas, director of marketing and communications, says he has a few regrets about 2009. He recalls: “There are one or two of our smaller brands that could have hugely benefited from some marketing off-air support in 2009 – but we look forward to getting behind them next year. I’d also like to have better regulated our spend in order to manage and maintain the awareness of some of our brands over the course of the year.”

Mark Thomson, media director at the Royal Mail, says there are areas where he would like to provide more focus in 2010. He admits: “I often look back wanting to have been bolder in several areas.” In 2009, he wishes he had spent even more time concentrating on promoting how physical bills and statements can work in a multichannel environment.

While these brands are open in admitting there is always more to do for the marketer, some companies should have more severe regrets about 2009, says academic David Aaker. He explains: “There are a variety of brands that have discovered how to market social programmes that work for their brand and their business, such as retailer Best Buy with its recycling programme.

“However, the majority of brands have yet to find the key. Microsoft, for example, could leverage the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation more effectively. None of the banks used the financial crisis to put forward a credible message of stability and valuing relationships with customers.”